python案例如何利用友谊赛数据做预测？

wen python案例 2026-08-18 166

本文目录导读：

完整的友谊赛预测案例
使用说明

我来帮你设计一个利用友谊赛数据做预测的完整案例,这里我会构建一个足球友谊赛结果预测系统。

完整的友谊赛预测案例

数据准备

import pandas as pd
import numpy as np
from sklearn.model_selection import train_test_split
from sklearn.ensemble import RandomForestClassifier, GradientBoostingClassifier
from sklearn.preprocessing import StandardScaler, LabelEncoder
from sklearn.metrics import accuracy_score, classification_report, confusion_matrix
import warnings
warnings.filterwarnings('ignore')
# 创建示例友谊赛数据
def create_friendly_match_data():
    # 模拟过去5年的友谊赛数据
    np.random.seed(42)
    teams = ['巴西', '德国', '阿根廷', '法国', '西班牙', '英格兰', 
             '葡萄牙', '荷兰', '意大利', '比利时', '乌拉圭', '哥伦比亚']
    data = []
    for _ in range(2000):  # 生成2000场友谊赛
        team1 = np.random.choice(teams)
        team2 = np.random.choice([t for t in teams if t != team1])
        # 基于球队实力生成比分
        team1_strength = np.random.randint(60, 95)
        team2_strength = np.random.randint(60, 95)
        # 生成比赛数据
        match = {
            '球队1': team1,
            '球队2': team2,
            '球队1_世界排名': np.random.randint(1, 50),
            '球队2_世界排名': np.random.randint(1, 50),
            '球队1_FIFA积分': team1_strength * 10 + np.random.randint(-20, 20),
            '球队2_FIFA积分': team2_strength * 10 + np.random.randint(-20, 20),
            '球队1_近10场胜率': np.random.uniform(0.3, 0.9),
            '球队2_近10场胜率': np.random.uniform(0.3, 0.9),
            '球队1_历史交锋胜率': np.random.uniform(0.2, 0.8),
            '球队2_历史交锋胜率': np.random.uniform(0.2, 0.8),
            '主客场': np.random.choice(['主场', '客场', '中立']),
            '友谊赛类型': np.random.choice(['普通友谊赛', '杯赛热身赛', '国际友谊赛']),
            '比赛时间': np.random.randint(1, 365),  # 距离大赛的天数
            '球队1_进球': np.random.poisson(1.5),
            '球队2_进球': np.random.poisson(1.2)
        }
        data.append(match)
    df = pd.DataFrame(data)
    # 创建目标变量：比赛结果
    df['结果'] = np.where(df['球队1_进球'] > df['球队2_进球'], '主胜',
                 np.where(df['球队1_进球'] == df['球队2_进球'], '平局', '客胜'))
    return df
# 加载数据
match_data = create_friendly_match_data()
print("数据预览：")
print(match_data.head())
print(f"\n数据维度: {match_data.shape}")

特征工程

def engineer_features(df):
    """进行特征工程，创建更有意义的预测特征"""
    # 创建特征副本
    df_feat = df.copy()
    # 计算实力差距特征
    df_feat['积分差距'] = df_feat['球队1_FIFA积分'] - df_feat['球队2_FIFA积分']
    df_feat['排名差距'] = df_feat['球队1_世界排名'] - df_feat['球队2_世界排名']
    df_feat['胜率差距'] = df_feat['球队1_近10场胜率'] - df_feat['球队2_近10场胜率']
    df_feat['交锋优势'] = df_feat['球队1_历史交锋胜率'] - df_feat['球队2_历史交锋胜率']
    # 创建综合实力指标
    df_feat['综合实力'] = (df_feat['球队1_FIFA积分'] + df_feat['球队1_近10场胜率']*100) / \
                          (df_feat['球队2_FIFA积分'] + df_feat['球队2_近10场胜率']*100)
    # 主客场优势编码
    home_advantage = {'主场': 1, '中立': 0.5, '客场': 0}
    df_feat['主场优势'] = df_feat['主客场'].map(home_advantage)
    # 友谊赛类型编码（临近大赛的友谊赛有更多参考价值）
    type_weight = {'普通友谊赛': 0.3, '国际友谊赛': 0.5, '杯赛热身赛': 0.8}
    df_feat['比赛权重'] = df_feat['友谊赛类型'].map(type_weight)
    return df_feat
# 应用特征工程
featured_data = engineer_features(match_data)
print("特征工程完成！")

模型构建

def prepare_model_data(df):
    """准备模型训练数据"""
    # 选择特征
    features = [
        '积分差距', '排名差距', '胜率差距', '交锋优势', 
        '综合实力', '主场优势', '比赛权重',
        '球队1_世界排名', '球队2_世界排名',
        '球队1_FIFA积分', '球队2_FIFA积分',
        '球队1_近10场胜率', '球队2_近10场胜率'
    ]
    X = df[features]
    y = df['结果']
    # 处理缺失值
    X = X.fillna(X.mean())
    # 标准化特征
    scaler = StandardScaler()
    X_scaled = scaler.fit_transform(X)
    # 划分训练集和测试集
    X_train, X_test, y_train, y_test = train_test_split(
        X_scaled, y, test_size=0.2, random_state=42, stratify=y
    )
    return X_train, X_test, y_train, y_test, scaler
# 准备数据
X_train, X_test, y_train, y_test, scaler = prepare_model_data(featured_data)
# 训练多个模型比较
def train_models(X_train, y_train):
    """训练多个机器学习模型"""
    models = {
        '随机森林': RandomForestClassifier(
            n_estimators=200, max_depth=10, random_state=42
        ),
        '梯度提升': GradientBoostingClassifier(
            n_estimators=200, max_depth=5, random_state=42
        ),
    }
    trained_models = {}
    for name, model in models.items():
        model.fit(X_train, y_train)
        trained_models[name] = model
    return trained_models
# 训练模型
models = train_models(X_train, y_train)
print("模型训练完成！")
# 评估模型
def evaluate_models(models, X_test, y_test):
    """评估模型性能"""
    results = {}
    for name, model in models.items():
        y_pred = model.predict(X_test)
        acc = accuracy_score(y_test, y_pred)
        results[name] = acc
        print(f"\n{name}模型评估:")
        print(f"准确率: {acc:.4f}")
        print("分类报告:")
        print(classification_report(y_test, y_pred))
        print("混淆矩阵:")
        print(confusion_matrix(y_test, y_pred))
        print("-" * 50)
    return results
# 评估模型
evaluation_results = evaluate_models(models, X_test, y_test)

新比赛预测功能

def predict_new_match(model, scaler, team1_info, team2_info):
    """
    预测新友谊赛结果
    参数:
    - model: 训练好的模型
    - scaler: 标准化器
    - team1_info: 球队1信息字典
    - team2_info: 球队2信息字典
    """
    # 构建特征向量
    features = np.array([
        team1_info['FIFA积分'] - team2_info['FIFA积分'],  # 积分差距
        team1_info['世界排名'] - team2_info['世界排名'],  # 排名差距
        team1_info['近10场胜率'] - team2_info['近10场胜率'],  # 胜率差距
        team1_info['历史交锋胜率'] - team2_info['历史交锋胜率'],  # 交锋优势
        (team1_info['FIFA积分'] + team1_info['近10场胜率']*100) / 
        (team2_info['FIFA积分'] + team2_info['近10场胜率']*100),  # 综合实力
        team1_info['主场优势'],  # 主场优势
        team1_info['比赛权重'],  # 比赛权重
        team1_info['世界排名'],
        team2_info['世界排名'],
        team1_info['FIFA积分'],
        team2_info['FIFA积分'],
        team1_info['近10场胜率'],
        team2_info['近10场胜率']
    ]).reshape(1, -1)
    # 标准化特征
    features_scaled = scaler.transform(features)
    # 预测概率
    probabilities = model.predict_proba(features_scaled)[0]
    return probabilities
# 模拟预测新比赛
def make_prediction():
    """进行一场新友谊赛的预测"""
    print("="*60)
    print("友谊赛预测系统演示")
    print("="*60)
    # 示例：预测巴西对阵德国
    team1 = {
        'world_rank': 5,
        'fifa_points': 850,
        'recent_win_rate': 0.75,
        'head_to_head_win_rate': 0.6,
        'home_advantage': 1,
        'match_weight': 0.8
    }
    team2 = {
        'world_rank': 3,
        'fifa_points': 870,
        'recent_win_rate': 0.8,
        'head_to_head_win_rate': 0.55,
        'home_advantage': 0.5,
        'match_weight': 0.8
    }
    # 获取最佳模型（这里用随机森林）
    best_model = models['随机森林']
    # 预测
    probabilities = predict_new_match(best_model, scaler, team1, team2)
    # 输出结果
    print(f"\n比赛预测：巴西 vs 德国")
    print(f"巴西获胜概率: {probabilities[2]*100:.1f}%")
    print(f"平局概率: {probabilities[0]*100:.1f}%")
    print(f"德国获胜概率: {probabilities[1]*100:.1f}%")
    # 预测最可能结果
    outcomes = ['平局', '客胜', '主胜']  # 注意顺序需要与模型训练一致
    predicted = outcomes[np.argmax(probabilities)]
    print(f"\n预测结果: {predicted}")
    return probabilities
# 执行预测
prediction = make_prediction()

模型调优

from sklearn.model_selection import GridSearchCV
def optimize_model(X_train, y_train):
    """网格搜索优化模型参数"""
    param_grid = {
        'n_estimators': [100, 200, 300],
        'max_depth': [5, 10, 15],
        'min_samples_split': [2, 5, 10],
        'min_samples_leaf': [1, 2, 4]
    }
    rf = RandomForestClassifier(random_state=42)
    grid_search = GridSearchCV(
        rf, param_grid, cv=5, scoring='accuracy', 
        n_jobs=-1, verbose=1
    )
    grid_search.fit(X_train, y_train)
    print("最佳参数:", grid_search.best_params_)
    print("最佳得分:", grid_search.best_score_)
    return grid_search.best_estimator_
# 模型优化（可选，计算量大）
# best_model = optimize_model(X_train, y_train)

特征重要性分析

def analyze_feature_importance(model, feature_names):
    """分析特征重要性"""
    # 获取特征重要性
    importance = model.feature_importances_
    # 排序
    indices = np.argsort(importance)[::-1]
    print("\n特征重要性排名:")
    print("-"*40)
    for i in range(len(indices)):
        print(f"{i+1}. {feature_names[indices[i]]}: {importance[indices[i]]:.4f}")
    # 可视化
    import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
    plt.figure(figsize=(10, 6))
    plt.title('特征重要性分析')
    plt.bar(range(len(indices)), importance[indices])
    plt.xticks(range(len(indices)), [feature_names[i] for i in indices], rotation=45)
    plt.tight_layout()
    plt.show()
# 分析特征重要性
feature_names = [
    '积分差距', '排名差距', '胜率差距', '交锋优势', 
    '综合实力', '主场优势', '比赛权重',
    '球队1_世界排名', '球队2_世界排名',
    '球队1_FIFA积分', '球队2_FIFA积分',
    '球队1_近10场胜率', '球队2_近10场胜率'
]
analyze_feature_importance(models['随机森林'], feature_names)

批量预测演示

def batch_prediction_demo():
    """批量预测多场比赛"""
    # 准备多场比赛数据
    matches_to_predict = [
        ('法国', '阿根廷'),
        ('葡萄牙', '西班牙'),
        ('英格兰', '比利时'),
        ('荷兰', '意大利')
    ]
    print("\n批量预测演示:")
    print("="*60)
    for team1_name, team2_name in matches_to_predict:
        # 模拟球队数据
        team1_info = {
            'world_rank': np.random.randint(1, 20),
            'fifa_points': np.random.randint(750, 900),
            'recent_win_rate': np.random.uniform(0.5, 0.9),
            'head_to_head_win_rate': np.random.uniform(0.4, 0.7),
            'home_advantage': np.random.choice([0, 0.5, 1]),
            'match_weight': 0.5
        }
        team2_info = {
            'world_rank': np.random.randint(1, 20),
            'fifa_points': np.random.randint(750, 900),
            'recent_win_rate': np.random.uniform(0.5, 0.9),
            'head_to_head_win_rate': np.random.uniform(0.4, 0.7),
            'home_advantage': np.random.choice([0, 0.5, 1]),
            'match_weight': 0.5
        }
        # 预测
        prob = predict_new_match(models['随机森林'], scaler, team1_info, team2_info)
        predicted = ['平局', '客胜', '主胜'][np.argmax(prob)]
        print(f"{team1_name} vs {team2_name}:")
        print(f"  预测结果: {predicted} (主胜:{prob[2]:.1%}, 平局:{prob[0]:.1%}, 客胜:{prob[1]:.1%})")
    print("-"*60)
# 执行批量预测
batch_prediction_demo()